The good news and the bad news on UK oil production

A story on BBC news this morning covered a press release from Oil and Gas UK, which is a body representing the companies working in the North Sea. Given that, it's unsurprising that they have some 'good news':

Following the introduction of tax changes designed to encourage growth in the UK oil and gas sector, the industry has responded with the highest investment for more than thirty years.
...
a significant upturn can now be predicted over the next three to four years, rising to approximately two million boe per day by 2017

However, they do acknowledge the reality of where we are right now:

Production fell to 1.55 million boe per day in 2012, down by 14 per cent from 2011 and by 30 per cent from 2010.
...
production may fall again slightly this year to 1.45 – 1.5 million boe per day...

I'm personally not convinced that production will actually rise as they they think, because we seem to have 'one off' factors that affect production every year, and as they are due to ageing infrastructure I see no reason for the next few years to be any different. Even if production does climb as they forecast by 2017, it will still by less than the figure in 2010.

The answer? Obvious really - we have to use less oil and gas, or else face paying a very high price for it.